Method for ensuring the functional resilience of a software-defined computer network based on state prediction using a generalized parameter

DOI: 10.31673/2412-9070.2025.061202

Abstract

The article proposes a method for ensuring the functional resilience of a software-defined computer network (SDN) based on predicting its operational state using a generalized parameter. The study focuses on developing a predictive model that evaluates the dynamic behavior of SDN elements and determines the probability of the network transitioning to critical or unstable states. The approach integrates statistical normalization of network parameters, Bayesian classification of operational conditions, and nonparametric estimation of probability densities to form a robust assessment of the current and future states of the system. The generalized parameter is derived from multiple monitored metrics (such as flow rate, packet loss, and delay), allowing the model to capture multidimensional dependencies and reduce the influence of noise or partial data loss.
The developed method enables real-time forecasting of network degradation trends and provides a basis for proactive reconfiguration and load redistribution within the control plane. Simulation results demonstrate that the predictive model improves decision-making accuracy in selecting stable network configurations and reduces the time required to restore optimal operation after disturbances. The proposed approach ensures adaptive resilience against both internal failures and external cyber-impacts by combining probabilistic modeling and dynamic prediction.
The results of the research can be applied to enhance SDN controllers, network management systems, and automated security mechanisms that require continuous monitoring of network stability. The method contributes to the advancement of intelligent network management, where resilience is achieved not only by redundancy or recovery but also through predictive adaptation based on probabilistic assessment of state evolution.

Keywords: software-defined network (SDN); functional stability; traffic; algorithm; Bayesian method; data; SDN controller; metric.