Methods of estimation of criteria of efficiency of satellite systems
DOI №______
Abstract
One of the characteristic trends in the development of modern society is the emergence of large, extremely complex systems, to which class satellite systems also belong. To determine the optimal structure of the system, it is necessary to conduct a series of researches. In the development of modern telecommunication technologies, the use of quantitative methods for the analysis and prediction of qualitative changes limits the possibility of obtaining sufficient information. This is especially true in cases when it is necessary to give a perspective assessment of qualitatively new processes occurring in complex systems. In such circumstances, the development of forecasts becomes relevant, because only in this way can somehow reduce the level of uncertainty and risk and, accordingly, increase the reliability of management decisions. Possibility of solving these problems, even in the absence of theoretical justification, is achieved through the skillful use of the experience and knowledge of specialists working on the solution of the relevant issues. These methods based on the assumption that, based on the views of specialists in a certain field of knowledge, one can build an adequate picture of future development, taking into account all possible changes-methods of expertise or expert appraisal methods. The article is devoted to methods of expert evaluations for determining the criteria of the effectiveness of complex systems, which is one of the most important problems in their optimization. The basic methods of forming subjective evaluation on the basis of intuitivelogical analysis of optimization problems without their quantitative formalization are considered.
Keywords: complex system; optimal structure; efficiency criterion; additive transformation; criterion value; expert evaluation; ranking; direct evaluation; sequent advantages.
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