AVIATION SECURITY IN CONFLICT ZONES: THE ROLE OF GDP PER CAPITA IN MITIGATING RISKS

DOI: 10.31673/2415-8089.2024.030410

Abstract

The paper investigates the relationship between GDP per capita and the risk of aircraft shootdowns in conflict zones, revealing a strong correlation between economic stability and aviation security. With global air traffic recovering post-COVID-19, aviation security remains a critical challenge, particularly in conflict zones. The study quantifies this risk by analysing 178 shooting incidents and employing a Generalized Linear Model to predict the probability of aircraft being shot down. Findings show that lower GDP per capita increases the likelihood of such incidents. Incorporating economic data into security models can help improve risk assessment for future
aviation operations. The research underscores the importance of using GDP per capita as a key economic metric when assessing national and aviation security risks. By examining conflicts and flight operations data, the study shows that countries with stronger economies, as reflected by higher GDP per capita, are less likely to experience aviation security incidents. The analysis uses variables such as the nature of the flight, conflict intensity, and type to create predictive models, suggesting that economic conditions play a vital role in mitigating security threats in civil aviation. This approach to aviation security analysis not only emphasizes the importance of GDP as a measure of national stability but also points to the broader use of quantitative methods in predicting and managing security risks. The inclusion of GDP data into risk models provides a more robust framework for understanding and mitigating the likelihood of civilian aircraft being shot down in conflict zones, offering valuable insights for policymakers and airline operators. Future research
should explore additional economic and geopolitical factors to enhance these models further.